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NoYesYesYes
Lucerys<$100NoNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on November 8?
Resolved No. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 75%
Total Value
$1.49
Combined PnL
-$1.82
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$1.49
Total Shares1
Combined PnL+$0
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$1.82
No — 43%Yes — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.49 | $1.49 | +$0 | 97% 59717-1869 (61586) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.12 | — | -$0.82 | 21% 608-2274 (2882) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.55 | — | -$0.55 | 30% 2855-6557 (9412) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 35% 1158-2115 (3273) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18536-24186 (42722) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 42% 15337-20800 (36137) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3414-11955 (15369) |
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$0
Record
97%
59717-1869 (61586)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
21%
608-2274 (2882)
0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
—
PnL
-$0.55
Record
30%
2855-6557 (9412)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
35%
1158-2115 (3273)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18536-24186 (42722)
GO
godblessme2026<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
15337-20800 (36137)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3414-11955 (15369)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb62c901e...154e1e
Slug
highest-temperature-in-denver-on-november-8-2026-74-75f