Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on November 8?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $134 held · ended Nov 8

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$133.54

Combined PnL

$1.19

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 98.4¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$108.46

Total Shares113

Combined PnL+$2.61

Yes4 traders

Total Value$25.08

Total Shares181

Combined PnL-$1.42

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HoshinoAI<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$51.8	$51.9	-$0.05	8% 2-22 (24)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.6	+$1.2	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.6¢	$15.23	$15.84	+$0.61	53% 5069-4422 (9491)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 70¢	$11.45	$12.66	+$1.22	30% 2852-6533 (9385)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$11.54	$11.36	-$0.19	55% 25972-21275 (47247)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95¢	$7.76	$8.04	+$0.28	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$9.33	$7.63	-$1.7	25% 2354-7013 (9367)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.9	+$0.15	22% 3328-11821 (15149)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$1.88	$1.54	-$0.34	43% 5538-7237 (12775)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.05	$0.07	+$0.02	52% 8995-8175 (17170)

HoshinoAI<$100

Invested

$51.8

Value

$51.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

2-22 (24)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.23

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

5069-4422 (9491)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.45

Value

$12.66

PnL

+$1.22

Record

30%

2852-6533 (9385)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.54

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

25972-21275 (47247)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.76

Value

$8.04

PnL

+$0.28

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.33

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$1.7

Record

25%

2354-7013 (9367)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

22%

3328-11821 (15149)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.34

Record

43%

5538-7237 (12775)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

8995-8175 (17170)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.