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NoYesYesYes
Lucerys<$100NoNoNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 57°F or below on November 8?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 75%
Total Value
$100
Combined PnL
-$1.72
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$0.1
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$1.82
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $100 | +$0.1 | 97% 59717-1869 (61586) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.12 | — | -$0.82 | 21% 608-2274 (2882) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.55 | — | -$0.55 | 30% 2855-6557 (9412) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 35% 1158-2115 (3273) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18536-24186 (42722) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 42% 15337-20800 (36137) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 24093-24636 (48729) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3414-11955 (15369) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$99.9
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.1
Record
97%
59717-1869 (61586)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
21%
608-2274 (2882)
0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
—
PnL
-$0.55
Record
30%
2855-6557 (9412)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
35%
1158-2115 (3273)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18536-24186 (42722)
GO
godblessme2026<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
15337-20800 (36137)
MI
mildwindow27<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
24093-24636 (48729)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3414-11955 (15369)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x668f76d7...cb0a2c
Slug
highest-temperature-in-denver-on-november-8-2026-57forbelow