Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on November 5?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 55¢ · $75 held · ended Nov 5
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$75.3
$1.78
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry<$100 | Yesavg 51.1¢ | $47.42 | $45.34 | -$2.08 | 53% 4081-3603 (7684) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $21.55 | $25.52 | +$3.97 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $4.55 | $4.44 | -$0.1 | 54% 10554-9130 (19684) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.