Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on November 5?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 98¢ · $88 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$88.09
$14.89
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry<$100 | Yesavg 51.1¢ | $47.42 | $53.36 | +$10.35 | 53% 4088-3655 (7743) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $21.55 | $26.65 | +$5.1 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $4.55 | $5.23 | +$1.05 | 54% 10598-9158 (19756) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 95.1¢ | $2.66 | $2.73 | +$0.07 | 58% 21230-15422 (36652) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.1¢ | $3.91 | $0.12 | -$1.68 | 42% 837-1172 (2009) |
Invested
$47.42
Value
$53.36
PnL
+$10.35
Record
53%
4088-3655 (7743)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$21.55
Value
$26.65
PnL
+$5.1
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$5.23
PnL
+$1.05
Record
54%
10598-9158 (19756)
Invested
$2.66
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.07
Record
58%
21230-15422 (36652)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$1.68
Record
42%
837-1172 (2009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.