Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on November 4?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 95¢ · $316 held · ended Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$316.49

Combined PnL

-$29.22

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 94.5¢

+17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$236.97

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$2.89

Yes2 traders

Total Value$79.53

Total Shares456

Combined PnL-$26.33

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$72.03	$66.01	-$0.39	14% 461-2750 (3211)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$45.65	$46.48	+$0.83	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$41.6	$40.65	-$0.95	53% 3821-3402 (7223)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$64.25	$38.88	-$25.38	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$44.19	$35.89	-$1.55	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$31.4	$31.6	+$0.2	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 83¢	$33.2	$15.6	-$1	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$14.54	$13.88	-$0.65	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$13.42	$13.47	+$0.05	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$6.56	$6.46	-$0.09	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$7.23	$4	-$0.26	40% 1048-1577 (2625)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$2.29	$2.26	-$0.02	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 79¢	$1.31	$1.31	+$0	47% 1688-1871 (3559)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$72.03

Value

$66.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$45.65

Value

$46.48

PnL

+$0.83

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.6

Value

$40.65

PnL

-$0.95

Record

53%

3821-3402 (7223)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.25

Value

$38.88

PnL

-$25.38

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$44.19

Value

$35.89

PnL

-$1.55

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.4

Value

$31.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$33.2

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$1

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.54

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$0.65

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13.47

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.56

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$0.09

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.23

Value

PnL

-$0.26

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.