Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on November 15?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 10.0¢ · $111 held · ended Nov 15

Yes90¢No10¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$110.52

Combined PnL

$26.76

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$93.63

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$61.6

No10 traders

Total Value$16.89

Total Shares192

Combined PnL-$34.84

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123<$100	Yesavg 33.2¢	$28.86	$78.3	+$49.44	61% 1212-768 (1980)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.37	$13.53	+$12.16	40% 2691-4022 (6713)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$42.38	$8.73	-$27.38	43% 855-1149 (2004)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 25.3¢	$6.3	$2.99	-$3.31	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$1.8	$1.8	+$0	40% 282-421 (703)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$14.06	$1.38	-$5.33	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.73	$0.73	+$0	58% 919-668 (1587)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.72	$0.72	+$0	47% 944-1058 (2002)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.62	$0.62	+$0	52% 977-889 (1866)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.61	+$0.51	56% 898-706 (1604)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 0.6¢	$0.17	$0.54	+$0.37	50% 919-927 (1846)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 0.6¢	$0.16	$0.46	+$0.3	50% 982-981 (1963)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.1	$0.11	+$0	48% 1303-1431 (2734)

vibing123<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.86

Value

$78.3

PnL

+$49.44

Record

61%

1212-768 (1980)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$12.16

Record

40%

2691-4022 (6713)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$42.38

Value

$8.73

PnL

-$27.38

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$3.31

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

282-421 (703)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$14.06

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$5.33

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

919-668 (1587)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

944-1058 (2002)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

977-889 (1866)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

898-706 (1604)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

919-927 (1846)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.46

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

982-981 (1963)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1303-1431 (2734)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.