Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on November 14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 90¢ · $172 held · ended Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$172.02

Combined PnL

-$24.4

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 89.9¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$169.19

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$0.55

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.83

Total Shares351

Combined PnL-$23.85

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.1¢	$112.81	$115.74	+$2.93	41% 716-1035 (1751)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$42.21	$38.76	-$3.45	52% 830-759 (1589)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.5	$9.4	-$0.1	99% 1425-20 (1445)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.22	$5.29	+$0.07	61% 790-508 (1298)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$20.12	$1.03	-$19.09	62% 1141-702 (1843)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$1.12	$0.74	-$0.39	58% 765-561 (1326)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.87	$0.49	-$0.39	51% 867-820 (1687)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.08	$0.28	+$0.2	46% 1157-1347 (2504)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$4.45	$0.18	-$4.27	14% 93-566 (659)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$0.13	+$0.09	49% 845-866 (1711)

241532532432

Invested

$112.81

Value

$115.74

PnL

+$2.93

Record

41%

716-1035 (1751)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$42.21

Value

$38.76

PnL

-$3.45

Record

52%

830-759 (1589)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

99%

1425-20 (1445)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$0.07

Record

61%

790-508 (1298)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.12

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$19.09

Record

62%

1141-702 (1843)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.39

Record

51%

867-820 (1687)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.2

Record

46%

1157-1347 (2504)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.45

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$4.27

Record

14%

93-566 (659)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

89.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.