Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on November 14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $288 held · ended Nov 14

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$287.68

Combined PnL

-$52.74

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 93.3¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$239.11

Total Shares261

Combined PnL-$16.29

Yes6 traders

Total Value$48.58

Total Shares593

Combined PnL-$36.45

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 93.6¢	$332.01	$182.29	-$17.08	41% 714-1032 (1746)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$46.49	$45.84	-$0.65	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$27.85	$22.54	-$5.32	62% 1138-702 (1840)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$36.1	$12.84	-$23.26	54% 2309-1989 (4298)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.1¢	$13.09	$8.39	-$4.7	57% 753-558 (1311)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$4.54	$5.94	+$1.4	41% 46-66 (112)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$5	$5.04	+$0.04	99% 1419-20 (1439)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5.6	$2.7	-$2.9	61% 783-498 (1281)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$2.37	$1.89	-$0.48	52% 818-756 (1574)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$12.19	$0.22	+$0.2	71% 904-363 (1267)

241532532432

Invested

$332.01

Value

$182.29

PnL

-$17.08

Record

41%

714-1032 (1746)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.49

Value

$45.84

PnL

-$0.65

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.85

Value

$22.54

PnL

-$5.32

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.1

Value

$12.84

PnL

-$23.26

Record

54%

2309-1989 (4298)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.09

Value

$8.39

PnL

-$4.7

Record

57%

753-558 (1311)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$4.54

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$1.4

Record

41%

46-66 (112)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1419-20 (1439)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$2.9

Record

61%

783-498 (1281)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

818-756 (1574)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.19

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.2

Record

71%

904-363 (1267)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.6%

93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.