Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on November 14?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 55¢ · $655 held · ended Nov 14

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$655.49

Combined PnL

-$193.99

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 55¢

-32% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$312.67

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$225.64

Yes6 traders

Total Value$81.92

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$31.65

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 81.6¢	$491.52	$276.92	-$214.6	62% 1141-702 (1843)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$162.74	$260.6	+$97.86	41% 716-1035 (1751)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.2¢	$87.39	$205.56	+$118.17
└ No leg	Noavg 58.9¢	$75.35	$55.04	-$20.31
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$13.26	$36.64	+$23.37	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 62¢	$33.43	$27.59	-$5.84	58% 787-561 (1348)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3.6	$18	+$14.4	14% 93-566 (659)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$13.69	$9.94	-$3.75	46% 1157-1347 (2504)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.4¢	$13.5	$9.28	-$4.22	61% 790-508 (1298)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$21.09	$8.16	-$5.2	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.6¢	$5.05	$5.68	+$0.63	50% 780-769 (1549)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.17	$2.38	+$1.22	58% 765-561 (1326)

vibing123

Invested

$491.52

Value

$276.92

PnL

-$214.6

Record

62%

1141-702 (1843)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$162.74

Value

$260.6

PnL

+$97.86

Record

41%

716-1035 (1751)

Both legs:

Yes$87.3924.2¢+$118.17

No$75.3558.9¢-$20.31

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.26

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$23.37

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$33.43

Value

$27.59

PnL

-$5.84

Record

58%

787-561 (1348)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$18

PnL

+$14.4

Record

14%

93-566 (659)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.69

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$3.75

Record

46%

1157-1347 (2504)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$9.28

PnL

-$4.22

Record

61%

790-508 (1298)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$5.2

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.63

Record

50%

780-769 (1549)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$1.22

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.