Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on November 14?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (27%) · No at 57¢ · $511 held · ended Nov 14

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 27%

Total Value

$510.53

Combined PnL

-$21.73

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 57.2¢

-24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$451.68

Total Shares695

Combined PnL-$60.82

Yes8 traders

Total Value$58.85

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$39.09

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 75.7¢	$494.14	$424.45	-$69.69	62% 1138-702 (1840)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.13	$25.71	+$25.58	49% 805-834 (1639)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$17.57	$17.61	+$0.04	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$3.73	$11.93	+$8.2	52% 818-756 (1574)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$70.92	$9.62	+$8.83	41% 711-1031 (1742)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$3.69	$4.02	+$0.33	46% 1146-1345 (2491)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$3.68	$4.01	+$0.33	51% 857-817 (1674)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$3.68	$4.01	+$0.33	61% 783-498 (1281)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$3.56	+$3.54	57% 753-558 (1311)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$2.93	$3.2	+$0.26	50% 770-766 (1536)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.6¢	$1.9	$2.42	+$0.52	46% 2743-3256 (5999)

vibing123

Invested

$494.14

Value

$424.45

PnL

-$69.69

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$25.71

PnL

+$25.58

Record

49%

805-834 (1639)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$17.57

Value

$17.61

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$11.93

PnL

+$8.2

Record

52%

818-756 (1574)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$70.92

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$8.83

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.69

Value

$4.02

PnL

+$0.33

Record

46%

1146-1345 (2491)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.68

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.33

Record

51%

857-817 (1674)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.68

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.33

Record

61%

783-498 (1281)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$3.54

Record

57%

753-558 (1311)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

770-766 (1536)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.52

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.4%

57.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.