Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on November 12?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 34¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 12

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$130.51

Combined PnL

$6.9

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$66.45

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$0.7

No3 traders

Total Value$64.06

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$7.6

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$40.17	$39.38	-$0.79	68% 2086-974 (3060)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$28.84	$35.79	+$6.95	53% 5727-5123 (10850)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.9¢	$26.41	$26.47	+$0.06	34% 333-660 (993)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$18.46	$18.46	+$0	26% 860-2483 (3343)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$9.15	$9.81	+$0.65	55% 624-512 (1136)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$0.57	$0.6	+$0.03	78% 593-165 (758)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.17

Value

$39.38

PnL

-$0.79

Record

68%

2086-974 (3060)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.84

Value

$35.79

PnL

+$6.95

Record

53%

5727-5123 (10850)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.41

Value

$26.47

PnL

+$0.06

Record

34%

333-660 (993)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$18.46

Value

$18.46

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.65

Record

55%

624-512 (1136)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.03

Record

78%

593-165 (758)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.