Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $258 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$258.44
$86.41
58.1¢ → 99.5¢
+71% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $73.93 | $99.43 | +$25.5 | 53% 6285-5568 (11853) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 36.8¢ | $49.04 | $78.98 | +$53.11 | 37% 464-794 (1258) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $36.01 | $40.45 | +$14.33 | 54% 1043-906 (1949) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.5 | $28.89 | +$12.39 | 29% 918-2203 (3121) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $1.34 | $5.6 | +$4.26 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.4¢ | $47.46 | $5.09 | -$23.18 | 61% 2173-1396 (3569) |
Invested
$73.93
Value
$99.43
PnL
+$25.5
Record
53%
6285-5568 (11853)
Invested
$49.04
Value
$78.98
PnL
+$53.11
Record
37%
464-794 (1258)
Invested
$36.01
Value
$40.45
PnL
+$14.33
Record
54%
1043-906 (1949)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$28.89
PnL
+$12.39
Record
29%
918-2203 (3121)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$5.6
PnL
+$4.26
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$47.46
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$23.18
Record
61%
2173-1396 (3569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.