Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.7¢ · $505 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$504.62
$376.85
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $69.89 | $261.54 | +$242.65 | 37% 464-794 (1258) |
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $21.6 | $231.92 | +$210.32 | 61% 2173-1396 (3569) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Noavg 3.1¢ | $6.39 | $6.8 | +$0.41 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.9¢ | $30.8 | $2.86 | -$39.68 | 54% 1043-906 (1949) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $37.02 | $1.26 | -$35.76 | 53% 6285-5568 (11853) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 18.4¢ | $1.34 | $0.24 | -$1.1 | 45% 137-168 (305) |
Invested
$69.89
Value
$261.54
PnL
+$242.65
Record
37%
464-794 (1258)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$231.92
PnL
+$210.32
Record
61%
2173-1396 (3569)
Invested
$6.39
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$0.41
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$2.86
PnL
-$39.68
Record
54%
1043-906 (1949)
Invested
$37.02
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$35.76
Record
53%
6285-5568 (11853)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$1.1
Record
45%
137-168 (305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.