Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $441 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$440.52
-$2.46
97.9¢ → 97.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $316.3 | $313.34 | -$2.96 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $107.46 | $107.55 | +$0.09 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $9.63 | $9.88 | +$0.25 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $4.79 | $4.88 | +$0.08 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $4.8 | $4.88 | +$0.08 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
Invested
$316.3
Value
$313.34
PnL
-$2.96
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$107.46
Value
$107.55
PnL
+$0.09
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$9.63
Value
$9.88
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.