Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 60¢ · $128 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$127.55
$12.59
55.4¢ → 60¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $79.52 | $85.2 | +$5.68 | 23% 151-506 (657) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $15.6 | $19.35 | +$3.75 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $14.33 | $16.55 | +$2.21 | 52% 247-230 (477) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $3.23 | +$0.43 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $3.23 | +$0.52 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$79.52
Value
$85.2
PnL
+$5.68
Record
23%
151-506 (657)
balthazar<$100Invested
$15.6
Value
$19.35
PnL
+$3.75
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$14.33
Value
$16.55
PnL
+$2.21
Record
52%
247-230 (477)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.43
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.52
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.