Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $71 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$70.57
-$0.69
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $41.44 | $40.7 | -$0.74 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.5 | $16.5 | +$0 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $7.77 | $7.87 | +$0.1 | 86% 438-72 (510) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.75 | -$0.05 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.75 | +$0 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$41.44
Value
$40.7
PnL
-$0.74
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.5
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$7.87
PnL
+$0.1
Record
86%
438-72 (510)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0.05
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.