Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on November 10?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 48¢ · $197 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$196.65
-$28.08
54.4¢ → 47.5¢
-13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 54.9¢ | $164.65 | $134.97 | -$29.68 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $34.65 | $36.45 | +$1.81 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $9 | $11.09 | +$2.1 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $10.68 | $9.07 | -$1.61 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2.2 | $2.69 | +$0.48 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $2.38 | -$1.17 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
Invested
$164.65
Value
$134.97
PnL
-$29.68
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$34.65
Value
$36.45
PnL
+$1.81
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Invested
$9
Value
$11.09
PnL
+$2.1
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.68
Value
$9.07
PnL
-$1.61
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.69
PnL
+$0.48
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$1.17
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.