Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 62¢ · $130 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$130.42
$3.55
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $61.73 | $94.03 | +$32.3 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $36.83 | $69.06 | +$32.23 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.3¢ | $24.9 | $24.98 | +$0.08 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $12.14 | $13.43 | +$1.29 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 59.7¢ | $11.94 | $10.29 | -$1.65 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 42.7¢ | $9.18 | $8.49 | -$0.68 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $10.73 | $2.2 | +$4.17 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $1.98 | +$0.43 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
Invested
$61.73
Value
$94.03
PnL
+$32.3
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.14
Value
$13.43
PnL
+$1.29
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$11.94
Value
$10.29
PnL
-$1.65
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$8.49
PnL
-$0.68
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Invested
$10.73
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$4.17
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.43
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.