Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on November 10?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $80 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$79.95
-$0.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $36.49 | $30.4 | -$0.04 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.93 | $19.46 | -$0.47 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.75 | $19.31 | -$0.44 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $4.92 | $4.81 | -$0.12 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $3.32 | $3.51 | +$0.19 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $2.5 | $2.46 | -$0.04 | 99% 137-1 (138) |
Invested
$36.49
Value
$30.4
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.93
Value
$19.46
PnL
-$0.47
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$19.75
Value
$19.31
PnL
-$0.44
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$0.12
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$3.32
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$0.19
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$0.04
Record
99%
137-1 (138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.