Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $342 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$341.67
$0.42
76.3¢ → 65.9¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $182.03 | $195.08 | +$13.05 | 47% 675-754 (1429) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $65.81 | $65.61 | -$0.2 | 50% 1843-1820 (3663) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $68.68 | $58.21 | -$10.47 | 59% 1828-1274 (3102) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $48.73 | $12.75 | -$1.77 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $11.2 | $10.02 | -$0.2 | 20% 318-1310 (1628) |
Invested
$182.03
Value
$195.08
PnL
+$13.05
Record
47%
675-754 (1429)
Invested
$65.81
Value
$65.61
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
1843-1820 (3663)
Invested
$68.68
Value
$58.21
PnL
-$10.47
Record
59%
1828-1274 (3102)
Invested
$48.73
Value
$12.75
PnL
-$1.77
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$11.2
Value
$10.02
PnL
-$0.2
Record
20%
318-1310 (1628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.