Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on October 31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 25¢ · $577 held · ends Oct 31

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$577.29

Combined PnL

$42.76

Smart Money Entry

21.6¢ → 24.5¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$300.77

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL+$44.17

No3 traders

Total Value$207.09

Total Shares276

Combined PnL-$1.41

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 20.4¢	$174.65	$217.85	+$43.2	47% 665-744 (1409)
Istaroth	Noavg 74.9¢	$204.05	$169.69	-$2.7	20% 312-1273 (1585)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$81.95	$82.93	+$0.97	62% 1444-889 (2333)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 72.3¢	$69.38	$69.43	+$0.05	59% 1805-1255 (3060)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.3¢	$46.72	$47.19	+$0.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.5¢	$22.66	$22.24	-$0.42
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$28.7	$29.89	+$1.19	50% 1825-1804 (3629)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 74¢	$7.41	$7.52	+$0.1	55% 410-333 (743)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$174.65

Value

$217.85

PnL

+$43.2

Record

47%

665-744 (1409)

Istaroth

Invested

$204.05

Value

$169.69

PnL

-$2.7

Record

20%

312-1273 (1585)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.95

Value

$82.93

PnL

+$0.97

Record

62%

1444-889 (2333)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$69.38

Value

$69.43

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

1805-1255 (3060)

Both legs:

No$46.7272.3¢+$0.47

Yes$22.6627.5¢-$0.42

hello.67<$100

Invested

$28.7

Value

$29.89

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

1825-1804 (3629)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

410-333 (743)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.