Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $344 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$344.25
$13.17
66.8¢ → 56.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $204.52 | $197.14 | -$7.38 | 50% 1675-1660 (3335) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $83.16 | $102.13 | +$18.97 | 51% 596-562 (1158) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $37.07 | $36.76 | -$0.09 | 25% 283-846 (1129) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $5.56 | $5.08 | -$0.48 | 57% 13208-10063 (23271) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $38.19 | $3.14 | +$2.15 | 53% 6356-5571 (11927) |
Invested
$204.52
Value
$197.14
PnL
-$7.38
Record
50%
1675-1660 (3335)
Invested
$83.16
Value
$102.13
PnL
+$18.97
Record
51%
596-562 (1158)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$37.07
Value
$36.76
PnL
-$0.09
Record
25%
283-846 (1129)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$0.48
Record
57%
13208-10063 (23271)
Invested
$38.19
Value
$3.14
PnL
+$2.15
Record
53%
6356-5571 (11927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.