Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 29?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 84¢ · $272 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$272.17
$21.5
75.8¢ → 83.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 76¢ | $130.02 | $137.71 | +$7.69 | 50% 1642-1626 (3268) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $53.46 | $67.48 | +$14.02 | 46% 576-664 (1240) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $41.4 | $40 | -$0.97 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $16.22 | $16.33 | +$0.11 | 61% 20632-13069 (33701) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $12.41 | $5.5 | +$0.88 | 53% 6290-5520 (11810) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $5.39 | $5.15 | -$0.25 | 45% 1814-2260 (4074) |
Invested
$130.02
Value
$137.71
PnL
+$7.69
Record
50%
1642-1626 (3268)
Invested
$53.46
Value
$67.48
PnL
+$14.02
Record
46%
576-664 (1240)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$41.4
Value
$40
PnL
-$0.97
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.22
Value
$16.33
PnL
+$0.11
Record
61%
20632-13069 (33701)
Invested
$12.41
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0.88
Record
53%
6290-5520 (11810)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.25
Record
45%
1814-2260 (4074)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.