Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 29?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 53¢ · $856 held · ends Oct 29

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$855.81

Combined PnL

-$56.86

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 53¢

-21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$229.55

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$55.47

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.22

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$1.39

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 61¢	$488.26	$616.05	+$127.78	46% 584-672 (1256)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.3¢	$177.79	$319.76	+$163.05
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$331.55	$296.29	-$35.26
HE hello.67	Noavg 69.5¢	$244.9	$191.98	-$52.92	50% 1654-1642 (3296)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$40.12	$37.57	-$2.55	60% 1599-1049 (2648)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$8.6	$8.23	-$0.37	57% 13139-10016 (23155)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$3.01	$2	-$1.01	53% 6327-5543 (11870)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$488.26

Value

$616.05

PnL

+$127.78

Record

46%

584-672 (1256)

Both legs:

Yes$177.7925.3¢+$163.05

No$331.5561¢-$35.26

hello.67

Invested

$244.9

Value

$191.98

PnL

-$52.92

Record

50%

1654-1642 (3296)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$40.12

Value

$37.57

PnL

-$2.55

Record

60%

1599-1049 (2648)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.23

PnL

-$0.37

Record

57%

13139-10016 (23155)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.01

Value

PnL

-$1.01

Record

53%

6327-5543 (11870)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.