Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$51.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 60.5¢ | $922.52 | $659.09 | +$1.88 | 46% 556-647 (1203) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.5¢ | $406.23 | $460.03 | +$53.77 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $250.94 | $199.06 | -$51.89 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 61¢ | $681.23 | $466.64 | +$51.09 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $8.96 | $8.96 | +$0 | 61% 1527-966 (2493) |
Invested
$922.52
Value
$659.09
PnL
+$1.88
Record
46%
556-647 (1203)
Both legs:
Invested
$681.23
Value
$466.64
PnL
+$51.09
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$8.96
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1527-966 (2493)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.