Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $257 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$256.7
$1.54
70.5¢ → 67.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 78.3¢ | $93.22 | $92.82 | -$0.4 | 53% 6325-5539 (11864) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 73.1¢ | $201.79 | $54.34 | -$12.33 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $46.71 | $54 | +$7.29 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $35.06 | $43.41 | +$8.35 | 46% 582-672 (1254) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $27.04 | $12.14 | -$1.37 | 57% 13137-10012 (23149) |
Invested
$93.22
Value
$92.82
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
6325-5539 (11864)
IstarothInvested
$201.79
Value
$54.34
PnL
-$12.33
Record
27%
281-769 (1050)
Invested
$46.71
Value
$54
PnL
+$7.29
Record
60%
1599-1049 (2648)
Invested
$35.06
Value
$43.41
PnL
+$8.35
Record
46%
582-672 (1254)
Invested
$27.04
Value
$12.14
PnL
-$1.37
Record
57%
13137-10012 (23149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.