Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $180 held · ends Oct 28

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$180.17

Combined PnL

-$1.72

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$116.4

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$1.62

Yes2 traders

Total Value$63.77

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$0.1

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 82¢	$102	$100	-$1.62	31% 273-604 (877)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$62.17	$62.24	+$0.07	46% 559-650 (1209)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 84¢	$16.8	$16.4	+$0	61% 1532-972 (2504)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.69	$1.52	-$0.17	50% 1627-1615 (3242)

Istaroth

Invested

$102

Value

$100

PnL

-$1.62

Record

31%

273-604 (877)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.17

Value

$62.24

PnL

+$0.07

Record

46%

559-650 (1209)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1532-972 (2504)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

1627-1615 (3242)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.