Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on November 8?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 67¢ · $472 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$471.92
$5.6
65¢ → 66.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 61.4¢ | $179.55 | $187.25 | +$7.7 | 56% 829-641 (1470) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $142.94 | $152.68 | +$9.74 | 26% 2319-6715 (9034) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $64.64 | $54.8 | -$9.84 | 37% 913-1562 (2475) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $46.09 | $48.79 | -$0.4 | 53% 4150-3716 (7866) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | No | $17.83 | $17.83 | +$0 | 45% 9808-11964 (21772) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $16.23 | $5.41 | +$2.61 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $95.98 | $5.16 | -$4.21 | 13% 603-4221 (4824) |
Invested
$179.55
Value
$187.25
PnL
+$7.7
Record
56%
829-641 (1470)
Invested
$142.94
Value
$152.68
PnL
+$9.74
Record
26%
2319-6715 (9034)
Invested
$64.64
Value
$54.8
PnL
-$9.84
Record
37%
913-1562 (2475)
Invested
$46.09
Value
$48.79
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
4150-3716 (7866)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$17.83
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
9808-11964 (21772)
Invested
$16.23
Value
$5.41
PnL
+$2.61
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$95.98
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$4.21
Record
13%
603-4221 (4824)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.