Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on November 8?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 19¢ · $121 held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$121
$5.89
Research grade
AvoidYes at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $47.37 | $61.13 | +$13.76 | 37% 913-1562 (2475) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $23.49 | $24 | +$0.52 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $21.64 | $17.75 | -$3.89 | 53% 4150-3716 (7866) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $16.63 | $14.07 | -$2.56 | 56% 829-641 (1470) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $5.63 | $3.68 | -$1.95 | 26% 2319-6715 (9034) |
Invested
$47.37
Value
$61.13
PnL
+$13.76
Record
37%
913-1562 (2475)
Invested
$23.49
Value
$24
PnL
+$0.52
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
Invested
$21.64
Value
$17.75
PnL
-$3.89
Record
53%
4150-3716 (7866)
Invested
$16.63
Value
$14.07
PnL
-$2.56
Record
56%
829-641 (1470)
Invested
$5.63
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$1.95
Record
26%
2319-6715 (9034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.