Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on November 5?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 84¢ · $728 held · ends Nov 5

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$727.6

Combined PnL

-$7.03

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 84¢

+23% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$353.99

Total Shares477

Combined PnL+$8.07

Yes1 trader

Total Value$35.22

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$15.1

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$347.87	$338.4	-$9.47	44% 797-1006 (1803)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.9¢	$259.36	$255.77	-$3.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.8¢	$88.51	$82.63	-$5.88
Istaroth	Noavg 72.3¢	$163.02	$107.77	-$6.85	14% 461-2758 (3219)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$88.51	$87.71	-$0.8	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$58.48	$65.14	+$6.66	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$50.32	$35.22	-$15.1	53% 3825-3406 (7231)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$29.26	$29.91	+$0.65	54% 10037-8676 (18713)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$19.17	$21.57	+$2.4	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$12.74	$14.28	+$1.53	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$7.4	$8.99	+$1.58	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.45	$7.54	+$2.09	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.46	$3.71	+$0.25	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.44	$3.69	+$0.25	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.37	$3.67	+$0.3	39% 1087-1679 (2766)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$347.87

Value

$338.4

PnL

-$9.47

Record

44%

797-1006 (1803)

Both legs:

No$259.3672.9¢-$3.59

Yes$88.5127.8¢-$5.88

Istaroth

Invested

$163.02

Value

$107.77

PnL

-$6.85

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$88.51

Value

$87.71

PnL

-$0.8

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$58.48

Value

$65.14

PnL

+$6.66

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.32

Value

$35.22

PnL

-$15.1

Record

53%

3825-3406 (7231)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$29.26

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0.65

Record

54%

10037-8676 (18713)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.17

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$2.4

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$12.74

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$1.53

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$1.58

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$7.54

PnL

+$2.09

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.25

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.