Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on November 2?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $403 held · ended Nov 2

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$403.43

Combined PnL

$31.86

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 89¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$308.83

Total Shares331

Combined PnL+$9.34

Yes1 trader

Total Value$94.61

Total Shares996

Combined PnL+$22.52

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$98.56	$99.91	+$1.35	54% 7726-6475 (14201)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$72.09	$94.61	+$22.52	17% 402-2020 (2422)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$78.68	$81.4	+$2.71	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 87¢	$58.48	$63.89	+$4.56	50% 2042-2019 (4061)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88¢	$62.92	$63.64	+$0.71	56% 18394-14718 (33112)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$98.56

Value

$99.91

PnL

+$1.35

Record

54%

7726-6475 (14201)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.09

Value

$94.61

PnL

+$22.52

Record

17%

402-2020 (2422)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$78.68

Value

$81.4

PnL

+$2.71

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$58.48

Value

$63.89

PnL

+$4.56

Record

50%

2042-2019 (4061)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$62.92

Value

$63.64

PnL

+$0.71

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.