Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on November 2?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$231.52
$2.6
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $226.42 | $212.63 | -$12 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.1¢ | $143.13 | $139.64 | -$3.51 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.5¢ | $80.45 | $72.99 | -$8.49 | |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $15.8 | $16.6 | +$0.8 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $4.71 | $2.29 | +$1.8 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.