Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 2?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.0K
$173.04
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 67.9¢ | $582.44 | $575.19 | -$7.07 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 28.4¢ | $186.99 | $392.7 | +$175.18 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $24.31 | $25.63 | +$1.33 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $12.91 | $15.77 | +$1.91 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $5 | $6.6 | +$1.7 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
IstarothInvested
$582.44
Value
$575.19
PnL
-$7.07
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
Invested
$186.99
Value
$392.7
PnL
+$175.18
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Invested
$24.31
Value
$25.63
PnL
+$1.33
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$12.91
Value
$15.77
PnL
+$1.91
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$1.7
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.