Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on November 16?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 61¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 16

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$306.89

Combined PnL

-$5.46

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 60.7¢

-28% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$304.62

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$5.46

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.27

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$0

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 85¢	$223.48	$223.29	-$0.19	61% 1205-765 (1970)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$18.31	$16.98	-$1.32	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$16.05	$15.69	-$0.36	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$15.09	$13.29	-$1.79	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$8.65	$8.49	-$0.16	30% 1182-2734 (3916)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9.87	$8.49	-$1.38	99% 1631-24 (1655)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$6.71	$6.59	-$0.12	71% 954-392 (1346)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$4.33	$4.34	+$0.01	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$4.42	$4.34	-$0.08	57% 851-641 (1492)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.18	$3.12	-$0.07	50% 932-930 (1862)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$2.27	$2.27	+$0	42% 808-1111 (1919)

vibing123

Invested

$223.48

Value

$223.29

PnL

-$0.19

Record

61%

1205-765 (1970)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$18.31

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$1.32

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$16.05

Value

$15.69

PnL

-$0.36

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.09

Value

$13.29

PnL

-$1.79

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.65

Value

$8.49

PnL

-$0.16

Record

30%

1182-2734 (3916)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$8.49

PnL

-$1.38

Record

99%

1631-24 (1655)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.71

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$0.12

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0.01

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.34

PnL

-$0.08

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.9%

60.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.