Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 63¢ · $525 held · ends Nov 16

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$524.71

Combined PnL

-$110.7

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 62.5¢

-24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$407.35

Total Shares685

Combined PnL-$156.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$117.36

Total Shares419

Combined PnL+$45.48

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 86.4¢	$297.08	$202.96	-$94.12	61% 1200-763 (1963)
Haradwaith	Noavg 83¢	$165.99	$117.99	-$48	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$70.82	$115.88	+$45.06	54% 1125-974 (2099)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$41.85	$37.42	+$0.55	42% 803-1100 (1903)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$52.09	$25.28	-$8.54	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$19.65	$14.79	-$4.86	71% 950-388 (1338)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.7	$5.9	-$0.8	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.42	$3.01	-$0.41	50% 919-925 (1844)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.06	$1.48	+$0.42	13% 117-766 (883)

vibing123

Invested

$297.08

Value

$202.96

PnL

-$94.12

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

Haradwaith

Invested

$165.99

Value

$117.99

PnL

-$48

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$70.82

Value

$115.88

PnL

+$45.06

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$41.85

Value

$37.42

PnL

+$0.55

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$52.09

Value

$25.28

PnL

-$8.54

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.65

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$4.86

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.8

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$0.41

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.42

Record

13%

117-766 (883)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.