Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on November 16?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $425 held · ends Nov 16

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$425.48

Combined PnL

-$20.6

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 66.5¢

-15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$286.96

Total Shares416

Combined PnL-$36.71

Yes3 traders

Total Value$138.52

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$16.11

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 78.9¢	$296.64	$259.44	-$37.2	61% 1200-763 (1963)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 30.7¢	$120.24	$135.04	+$14.8	54% 1125-974 (2099)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.7	$6.9	+$0.2	38% 317-524 (841)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.7	$6.9	+$0.2	34% 352-671 (1023)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.9	+$0	35% 330-600 (930)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.58	$3.58	+$0	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.14	$3.24	+$0.09	47% 887-1007 (1894)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.85	$3.03	+$1.19	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.33	$0.45	+$0.12	29% 308-740 (1048)

vibing123

Invested

$296.64

Value

$259.44

PnL

-$37.2

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.24

Value

$135.04

PnL

+$14.8

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

330-600 (930)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.58

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.09

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.12

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.