Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 87¢ · $736 held · ends Nov 16

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$736.05

Combined PnL

$1.63

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 86.5¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$562.45

Total Shares670

Combined PnL+$75.32

Yes1 trader

Total Value$173.6

Total Shares1,020

Combined PnL-$73.69

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 70.8¢	$325.62	$386.17	+$60.55	54% 1125-974 (2099)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$247.29	$173.6	-$73.69	61% 1200-763 (1963)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$82.3	$84.16	+$9.07	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$33.4	$33.6	+$0.2	42% 803-1100 (1903)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$27.43	$31.31	+$3.88	71% 950-388 (1338)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7	$8.4	+$1.4	34% 352-671 (1023)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.4	+$0	39% 327-521 (848)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.36	$4.36	+$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.14	$4.29	+$0.15	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 81¢	$1.71	$1.77	+$0.06	50% 919-925 (1844)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$325.62

Value

$386.17

PnL

+$60.55

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$247.29

Value

$173.6

PnL

-$73.69

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$82.3

Value

$84.16

PnL

+$9.07

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$33.4

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$27.43

Value

$31.31

PnL

+$3.88

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.36

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.