Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 89¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 15

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$217.33

Combined PnL

$15.11

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 88.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$207.77

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$14.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.56

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$1.09

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 84.7¢	$136	$147.67	+$11.67	55% 1097-903 (2000)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$22.75	$24.4	+$1.65	55% 2291-1902 (4193)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$17.41	$10.07	+$0.28	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.2	-$0.2	30% 1043-2405 (3448)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$6.66	$7.77	+$1.11	40% 660-990 (1650)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 87¢	$7.03	$7.15	+$0.12	32% 168-365 (533)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.78	$4.67	-$0.1	63% 741-442 (1183)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$4.6	+$0.6	62% 1134-699 (1833)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$1.79	-$0.02	14% 82-515 (597)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$136

Value

$147.67

PnL

+$11.67

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$22.75

Value

$24.4

PnL

+$1.65

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.41

Value

$10.07

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

30%

1043-2405 (3448)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$1.11

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$7.03

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$0.12

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

vibing123<$100

Invested

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

62%

1134-699 (1833)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.02

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.