Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on November 15?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 72¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 15

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$133.86

Combined PnL

$15.38

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 72¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$130.96

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$5.87

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.83

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$9.51

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$30.72	$32.3	+$1.58	71% 920-377 (1297)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$94.37	$32.3	+$4.19	42% 763-1074 (1837)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$16.35	$17.38	+$1.02	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 69¢	$16.63	$16.29	+$1.28	65% 4359-2378 (6737)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 67¢	$10.95	$10.62	-$0.33	40% 47-70 (117)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 77¢	$7.7	$6.5	-$1.2	38% 311-502 (813)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$5.3	$4.76	-$0.54	68% 89-42 (131)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.51	$3.78	+$0.28	50% 895-904 (1799)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.78	+$0.32	35% 3870-7164 (11034)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$3.25	-$0.75	62% 1171-720 (1891)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$72.73	$2.83	+$9.51	29% 270-666 (936)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$30.72

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$1.58

Record

71%

920-377 (1297)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$94.37

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$4.19

Record

42%

763-1074 (1837)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.35

Value

$17.38

PnL

+$1.02

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$16.63

Value

$16.29

PnL

+$1.28

Record

65%

4359-2378 (6737)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$0.33

Record

40%

47-70 (117)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$1.2

Record

38%

311-502 (813)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.54

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

895-904 (1799)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.32

Record

35%

3870-7164 (11034)

vibing123<$100

Invested

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

62%

1171-720 (1891)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.73

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$9.51

Record

29%

270-666 (936)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.