Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on November 15?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 33¢ · $722 held · ends Nov 15

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$722.24

Combined PnL

-$28.11

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 33¢

-56% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$394.74

Total Shares739

Combined PnL-$171.04

Yes5 traders

Total Value$247.2

Total Shares529

Combined PnL+$142.93

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 79.7¢	$492.76	$333.72	-$159.04	62% 1171-720 (1891)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 19.7¢	$85.81	$199.98	+$114.18	54% 1120-960 (2080)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 53.3¢	$85.99	$80.23	-$5.76	71% 920-377 (1297)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.6¢	$38.54	$52.2	+$13.66
└ No leg	Noavg 53.3¢	$47.45	$28.03	-$19.42
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 53.7¢	$190.44	$36.55	-$11.45	42% 763-1074 (1837)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$17.96	$17.89	-$0.07	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.83	$14.32	+$11.49	29% 270-666 (936)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$6.03	$13.65	+$7.62	53% 2330-2056 (4386)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$7.99	$10.09	+$2.1	68% 89-42 (131)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.63	$9.15	+$7.54	14% 98-588 (686)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$3.51	$3.73	+$0.23	50% 895-904 (1799)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.42	-$0.23	47% 872-965 (1837)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.42	-$0.48	35% 3870-7164 (11034)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$492.76

Value

$333.72

PnL

-$159.04

Record

62%

1171-720 (1891)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$85.81

Value

$199.98

PnL

+$114.18

Record

54%

1120-960 (2080)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$85.99

Value

$80.23

PnL

-$5.76

Record

71%

920-377 (1297)

Both legs:

Yes$38.5450.6¢+$13.66

No$47.4553.3¢-$19.42

241532532432CTR

Invested

$190.44

Value

$36.55

PnL

-$11.45

Record

42%

763-1074 (1837)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$17.96

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$11.49

Record

29%

270-666 (936)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$7.62

Record

53%

2330-2056 (4386)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.99

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$2.1

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.63

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$7.54

Record

14%

98-588 (686)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

895-904 (1799)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.23

Record

47%

872-965 (1837)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.48

Record

35%

3870-7164 (11034)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.