Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 48-49°F on November 15?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 86¢ · $855 held · ends Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$854.65

Combined PnL

-$12.44

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 86¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$641.6

Total Shares814

Combined PnL-$45.58

Yes5 traders

Total Value$213.05

Total Shares987

Combined PnL+$33.14

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 84.8¢	$492.47	$458.99	-$33.48	62% 1165-718 (1883)
Haradwaith	Noavg 82.3¢	$341.5	$170.33	-$12.58	29% 266-655 (921)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$141.48	$169.64	+$28.16	54% 1120-958 (2078)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$20.28	$17.8	-$2.48	42% 760-1068 (1828)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$10.63	$12.43	+$1.8	40% 47-70 (117)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$33.67	$8.81	+$3.1	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.9	+$0.4	34% 306-590 (896)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.31	$4.39	+$0.08	71% 919-377 (1296)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$4.38	+$2.57	14% 98-587 (685)

vibing123

Invested

$492.47

Value

$458.99

PnL

-$33.48

Record

62%

1165-718 (1883)

Haradwaith

Invested

$341.5

Value

$170.33

PnL

-$12.58

Record

29%

266-655 (921)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$141.48

Value

$169.64

PnL

+$28.16

Record

54%

1120-958 (2078)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.28

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$2.48

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.63

Value

$12.43

PnL

+$1.8

Record

40%

47-70 (117)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.67

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$3.1

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.4

Record

34%

306-590 (896)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$0.08

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$2.57

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.