Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on November 14?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 95¢ · $449 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$449.43
$7.33
88.3¢ → 94.7¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 88¢ | $154.98 | $162.39 | +$7.4 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 87.9¢ | $123.82 | $111.95 | +$7.78 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
VI vibing123CTR | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $106.01 | $95.12 | -$10.89 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $26.9 | $28.02 | +$1.12 | 30% 187-428 (615) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $46.98 | $20.73 | -$1.56 | 27% 197-540 (737) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $13.79 | $16.23 | +$2.44 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $12.15 | $12.85 | +$0.7 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $2.14 | +$0.32 | 13% 62-416 (478) |
Invested
$154.98
Value
$162.39
PnL
+$7.4
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$123.82
Value
$111.95
PnL
+$7.78
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$106.01
Value
$95.12
PnL
-$10.89
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$26.9
Value
$28.02
PnL
+$1.12
Record
30%
187-428 (615)
Invested
$46.98
Value
$20.73
PnL
-$1.56
Record
27%
197-540 (737)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$13.79
Value
$16.23
PnL
+$2.44
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$12.85
PnL
+$0.7
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$2.14
PnL
+$0.32
Record
13%
62-416 (478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.