Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on November 14?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 16¢ · $635 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$635.18
-$113.53
24.4¢ → 16¢
-35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $480.14 | $374 | -$106.14 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 73¢ | $102.2 | $100.8 | -$1.4 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $45.27 | $44.32 | -$0.95 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $76.29 | $33.1 | -$5.3 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $48.03 | $28.28 | +$12.51 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $21.6 | -$0.9 | 27% 197-540 (737) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $26.5 | $21.6 | -$4.9 | 30% 989-2362 (3351) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 22.1¢ | $108.5 | $11.39 | -$6.45 | 13% 62-416 (478) |
Invested
$480.14
Value
$374
PnL
-$106.14
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$102.2
Value
$100.8
PnL
-$1.4
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$45.27
Value
$44.32
PnL
-$0.95
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
Invested
$76.29
Value
$33.1
PnL
-$5.3
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$48.03
Value
$28.28
PnL
+$12.51
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$21.6
PnL
-$0.9
Record
27%
197-540 (737)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$21.6
PnL
-$4.9
Record
30%
989-2362 (3351)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$108.5
Value
$11.39
PnL
-$6.45
Record
13%
62-416 (478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.