Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on November 14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 71¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$286.21
$22.9
72.7¢ → 71¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 74¢ | $119.54 | $111.52 | -$8.02 | 56% 1189-918 (2107) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $59.26 | $58.77 | -$0.49 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $15.34 | $30.65 | +$30.72 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $20.7 | $20.7 | +$0 | 27% 973-2599 (3572) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $15.31 | $15.31 | +$0 | 41% 1570-2276 (3846) |
VI vibing123<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $14.74 | $15.18 | +$0.44 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $17.37 | $14.97 | +$0.3 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.4¢ | $12.15 | $12.2 | +$0.05 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $7 | $6.9 | -$0.1 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
Invested
$119.54
Value
$111.52
PnL
-$8.02
Record
56%
1189-918 (2107)
Invested
$59.26
Value
$58.77
PnL
-$0.49
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$15.34
Value
$30.65
PnL
+$30.72
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$20.7
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
973-2599 (3572)
Invested
$15.31
Value
$15.31
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1570-2276 (3846)
Invested
$14.74
Value
$15.18
PnL
+$0.44
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$17.37
Value
$14.97
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$12.2
PnL
+$0.05
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$7
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.