Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 56¢ · $559 held · ended Nov 14

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$559.17

Combined PnL

-$103.03

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 56¢

-27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$528.69

Total Shares888

Combined PnL-$163.24

Yes3 traders

Total Value$29.69

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$60.21

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 78.4¢	$494.19	$371.7	-$122.49	62% 1133-696 (1829)
HE hello.67	Noavg 74.5¢	$102.88	$81.51	-$21.37	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$99.51	$39.38	-$13.36	40% 657-989 (1646)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$26.82	$21.3	-$5.52	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$152.35	$14.21	+$51.18	31% 165-364 (529)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59¢	$9.6	$9.19	-$0.41	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$8.6	+$6.78	14% 82-514 (596)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.64	$6.88	+$2.24	72% 865-339 (1204)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.6	-$0.1	63% 739-442 (1181)

vibing123

Invested

$494.19

Value

$371.7

PnL

-$122.49

Record

62%

1133-696 (1829)

hello.67

Invested

$102.88

Value

$81.51

PnL

-$21.37

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$99.51

Value

$39.38

PnL

-$13.36

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.82

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$5.52

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.35

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$51.18

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.19

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$6.78

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$2.24

Record

72%

865-339 (1204)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

739-442 (1181)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.