Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $902 held · ends Nov 14

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$902.11

Combined PnL

$31.47

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 87.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$768.32

Total Shares838

Combined PnL+$7.35

Yes4 traders

Total Value$133.79

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$24.12

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 91¢	$497.59	$503.24	+$5.65	62% 1124-676 (1800)
Haradwaith	Noavg 92¢	$141.56	$122.21	-$3.49	30% 108-251 (359)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$43.73	$58.06	+$14.33	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$53	$55.2	+$2.2	31% 221-498 (719)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$36.38	$45	+$35.54	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$41.21	$43.67	+$2.47	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$52.88	$27.65	-$25.23	56% 1189-918 (2107)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91¢	$22.38	$23.58	+$1.19	73% 778-291 (1069)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 95¢	$21.09	$20.41	-$0.68	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$3.59	$3.07	-$0.52	13% 62-416 (478)

vibing123

Invested

$497.59

Value

$503.24

PnL

+$5.65

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

Haradwaith

Invested

$141.56

Value

$122.21

PnL

-$3.49

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.73

Value

$58.06

PnL

+$14.33

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$53

Value

$55.2

PnL

+$2.2

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.38

Value

$45

PnL

+$35.54

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.21

Value

$43.67

PnL

+$2.47

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.88

Value

$27.65

PnL

-$25.23

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$22.38

Value

$23.58

PnL

+$1.19

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$20.41

PnL

-$0.68

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.59

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$0.52

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.