Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 57°F or below on November 14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 4.0¢ · $349 held · ends Nov 14

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$349.06

Combined PnL

-$224.42

Smart Money Entry

17.1¢ → 4¢

-77% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$297.13

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$10.13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$51.93

Total Shares1,637

Combined PnL-$234.54

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.3¢	$102.1	$103.5	+$1.4	38% 543-874 (1417)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98¢	$78.42	$77.64	-$0.78	99% 1015-11 (1026)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 94.1¢	$100.54	$45.23	+$4.59	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.67	$29.41	-$0.26	30% 989-2362 (3351)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$214.7	$28.58	-$186.12	56% 1189-918 (2107)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$21.78	$21.75	-$0.03	30% 187-428 (615)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.4	$19.6	+$5.2	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$51.29	$19.37	-$31.92	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$10.91	$2.39	-$8.52	13% 62-416 (478)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.79	$1.59	-$7.98	30% 108-251 (359)

241532532432

Invested

$102.1

Value

$103.5

PnL

+$1.4

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$78.42

Value

$77.64

PnL

-$0.78

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

ghorrock

Invested

$100.54

Value

$45.23

PnL

+$4.59

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.41

PnL

-$0.26

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$214.7

Value

$28.58

PnL

-$186.12

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$21.78

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

187-428 (615)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$5.2

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.29

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$31.92

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$8.52

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.79

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$7.98

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1809.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

1909.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.