Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on November 13?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $56 held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$56.1

Combined PnL

-$39.57

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$54.73

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$0.19

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.37

Total Shares457

Combined PnL-$39.76

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$14.48	$14.59	+$0.1	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$12.21	$12.25	+$0.04	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.05	$10.04	-$0.02	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$8.27	$8.3	+$0.03	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.12	$5.15	+$0.04	50% 651-658 (1309)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 1015-11 (1026)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.91	$1.9	-$0	48% 710-781 (1491)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.03	$1.22	-$35.81	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.63	$0.12	-$3.51	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.48	$0.03	-$0.45	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.48

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.03

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$35.81

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$3.51

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.