Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on November 13?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $702 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$702.16
$73.15
71.2¢ → 78¢
+10% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 62¢ | $411.7 | $270.42 | +$61.41 | 60% 1158-781 (1939) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 73¢ | $185.98 | $198.78 | +$12.79 | 63% 2133-1234 (3367) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 79¢ | $147.5 | $145.68 | -$1.82 | 35% 404-741 (1145) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $31.95 | $31.2 | -$0.75 | 47% 4815-5470 (10285) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $31.23 | $18.54 | +$1.3 | 53% 900-794 (1694) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $11.88 | $12.54 | +$0.67 | 76% 661-212 (873) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $11.56 | $11.41 | -$0.15 | 53% 6070-5437 (11507) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $5.73 | $5.58 | -$0.14 | 42% 825-1150 (1975) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4.09 | $4.03 | -$0.05 | 44% 511-638 (1149) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.06 | $3.96 | -$0.1 | 46% 531-611 (1142) |
Invested
$411.7
Value
$270.42
PnL
+$61.41
Record
60%
1158-781 (1939)
Invested
$185.98
Value
$198.78
PnL
+$12.79
Record
63%
2133-1234 (3367)
Invested
$147.5
Value
$145.68
PnL
-$1.82
Record
35%
404-741 (1145)
balthazar<$100Invested
$31.95
Value
$31.2
PnL
-$0.75
Record
47%
4815-5470 (10285)
Invested
$31.23
Value
$18.54
PnL
+$1.3
Record
53%
900-794 (1694)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$12.54
PnL
+$0.67
Record
76%
661-212 (873)
Invested
$11.56
Value
$11.41
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
6070-5437 (11507)
Invested
$5.73
Value
$5.58
PnL
-$0.14
Record
42%
825-1150 (1975)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$0.05
Record
44%
511-638 (1149)
Invested
$4.06
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.1
Record
46%
531-611 (1142)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
No — $270.42
hello.67
No — $198.78
241532532432
No — $145.68
balthazar
No — $31.2
ghorrock
No — $18.54
Poligarch
No — $12.54
cigarettes
No — $11.41
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $5.58
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $4.03
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $3.96