Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 56¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 13

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$119.87

Combined PnL

$10.64

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$64.08

Total Shares144

Combined PnL+$10.99

No6 traders

Total Value$55.79

Total Shares91

Combined PnL-$0.35

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$78.95	$37	+$7.31	63% 2133-1234 (3367)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 55¢	$22	$22.2	+$0.2	47% 4815-5470 (10285)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$31.74	$17.21	+$3.8	35% 404-741 (1145)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59¢	$10.7	$10.78	+$0.08	53% 900-794 (1694)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$9.99	$9.87	-$0.11	76% 661-212 (873)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59¢	$8.63	$8.05	-$0.59	53% 6070-5437 (11507)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 55¢	$7.85	$7.92	+$0.07	48% 480-523 (1003)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 56¢	$4.01	$3.97	-$0.04	63% 461-274 (735)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.95	$2.87	-$0.08	42% 825-1150 (1975)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.95

Value

$37

PnL

+$7.31

Record

63%

2133-1234 (3367)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

4815-5470 (10285)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.74

Value

$17.21

PnL

+$3.8

Record

35%

404-741 (1145)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

900-794 (1694)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$0.11

Record

76%

661-212 (873)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$8.63

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0.59

Record

53%

6070-5437 (11507)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.85

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

480-523 (1003)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$0.04

Record

63%

461-274 (735)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$0.08

Record

42%

825-1150 (1975)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.